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- 积分
- 10
- 获赠鲜花
- 2 朵
- 个人财富
- 100 金币
- 注册时间
- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
" J3 F8 @0 p# C6 W1 X9 R$ c; v" j% V* u) B' C$ J$ ]
GM Overview8 u3 Y& e: L7 ?: n# t" K" U
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
6 g+ e8 O |* V& m• Objectives
5 S& n2 V' v; _+ S" P– What do we “WANT” to do?
( y& H4 {6 }& K! _• External Analysis
+ m* F/ e E& j# ~) K" ^& n– What do we “NEED” to do?
- T5 h5 y4 l7 k+ T( r– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade C8 ]5 X; n6 y" b
• opportunities & threats
% ]0 ]( O- l; n+ V* D8 `– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs2 J f# l q3 {, B- O6 T
• Internal Analysis
4 M* e, r: I: j3 s– What “CAN” we do?7 O: {# J5 d3 ^
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
: x5 [3 z, g6 A$ E• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
, J. U- L/ S6 I3 n) C– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
( O( c/ M& i; T) B& P4 a C; N4 R% n7 K" w7 i, _+ U2 v3 p" W
• Alternative Evaluation4 b* n& x$ L2 S* n, k% [: c
– What are the options?
+ e* }1 s' H2 G) A– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
+ U0 U' Q0 e" `# h! p) [– How does this option “FIT”?
* J1 S0 N4 I3 ]. u) s8 A– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
' t; `' S6 c0 X+ w ?: ]1 V– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
3 a: q& Q$ A: X3 U; `, N" G! j% y8 [2 w( D* }3 M4 X3 d
• Decision
9 Y+ a c% `6 y9 t3 L, N: m$ ]% `7 @– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
5 d8 |4 W- c' z& r– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
; U, v9 d4 H4 u; \/ ?! k• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?8 ~. b# J. h$ D, A3 s5 K
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?$ k* X+ g$ R0 u( v& y4 J
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
" g7 C2 k0 F4 x; b! a0 s5 c& O• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
. z. u! O, h1 W/ w# y @3 V• Why NOT the other options?4 [4 D* y" q; D: D c
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
7 Y: c$ y. i0 Q+ R" @; }# S; Bneed to be made?
( P* P: J; d' Z- F+ R
* a) J( N! d! U! c& ^. ~• Action Plan
, q# ?3 H: G s• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;2 a& J; Y6 D- S5 G! n
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your$ o" o" k2 k! R: e* T8 c, i/ M$ [
decision
8 t% j, u9 b3 Y1 |; x; V) z! z& \) |– details about timing1 o6 o4 E& m) A2 R( x
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
- v( ~- R" d# X( e! V– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
l5 j1 o8 l& Q( t* H9 d/ c1 P– make sure to consider both the short term and long term& b4 n4 l6 N# N& k
, b) }6 s* {1 `2 SFirm Valuation3 e* Y3 k/ e& t, U( j i
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
/ c/ H2 c8 l+ `# [8 Q( a( Q• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
) H8 P* Z9 k1 N- f9 y" N– Net Book Value
1 i* L7 H8 R+ T4 ] l– Economic Appraisal
1 Y/ i% L {: @0 G; M' ^4 `) l1 U– Capitalization of Earnings* }0 N* F2 g* ?8 I- r. T! l
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the+ T/ y4 N2 p3 T2 ^" t% ]- S
company is worth.. F& h% b P, t
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
$ R& ]( x) A# b+ U! J W
$ A/ E# G r2 T A/ m Net Book Value (NBV)
0 R4 p. ^# ?- I( t– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
- S6 W# g! l; |" [! ?• a.k.a.. the equity/ z/ d3 p9 R3 N" n* k, z2 h$ x
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets; P$ t8 [7 B2 r1 S. u: |
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
( C! t, ^0 o4 P5 W– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business2 F6 A: j! H) z) R
2 O3 [5 K( h) X2 {6 H4 X Economic Appraisal (EA)
0 X1 [, `9 D% ^7 k– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
. K& `: N# y- e5 b" ` d– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
$ B* p0 }( p9 W; ~2 M– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
4 u5 S0 g" a. P( }% ]7 z+ s% u7 ]; G9 d( |1 \, `) x
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
9 q4 }& V6 |; {- |( H% A m J– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
/ A2 U: f/ p4 h% Z2 z* v• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.. I F# l `" Y9 @7 S7 \1 a( T
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value! i0 e! N" R0 j2 ?! g
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
% `" g; m0 s4 B/ K0 D9 a• Assuming changes (projected statement)
9 W. h. e$ z& \; e! n3 T/ W1 h! b• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)3 Z' F& d+ |! L1 Q% _: D
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple6 i: l2 }, g8 H/ U3 Q$ T! Y4 `; d! q' v
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)& C0 O3 e+ P& d5 W$ k1 {5 \0 j
) L( \7 x* c$ \• P/E Multiple
; `1 E1 J S P* S9 b+ z: I2 B– Rules of thumb;) L) o# n0 w. ^% [: ^1 x8 C4 ?
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples; n. k4 r( l- n" U
from 5 to 15.
$ r) E$ R I! p" I9 _• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.9 W* I1 L- f8 P9 V5 K* A
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”, t8 c1 B: z( U% m
– growth increases a multiple
+ l" D: M- h' X+ W– risk decreases a multiple; M' u/ T4 f9 d- Z( Z$ I
. D8 ^9 h* A6 }" L8 c5 }! A6 PTheir Associated Ratios
1 d5 Q3 C# G8 w• Profitability;" n7 G: ~5 c3 V3 r+ g' ~
– Business goal - to make $$
& q7 E/ l$ J' }0 R) l– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales C* F2 Y2 M2 J( G4 P
• Stability;
' V' R) i& V: C* h7 H; S– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)2 W. U3 ?# P3 k1 ~7 R6 h5 G7 \
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
3 ]- e, f- {" P+ Q3 [- B7 }6 }; v# M5 g" l a4 z2 f
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
, ~+ k/ g& a. E T" y2 U • Liquidity;1 I; a" d) Z& j7 ]* S3 Z$ C
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations4 p) @! B; _: e) D
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm6 G6 n+ _, \* F6 h# s8 R0 o
obligations)" x. A' B! R5 e5 ]" Z- o' E
• Efficiency;
: o% V# N6 z4 r' M2 u9 \9 q+ E* S– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
" `& n7 ^" O; m6 H2 t) q7 K– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
: _0 C/ i- J( G+ n" D
3 }' [ A# l+ n• Growth;
) J8 I: v, \9 w0 W– Business goal - to increase in size
6 n, y' U+ E- z8 e– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth
H4 p+ W, m( E( @$ B- R8 n' ]$ v) b, O8 a! a# |( u
Interpreting the Ratios
6 z4 {) h& F& {7 N. N5 v6 Y• Profitability;* N2 g* L" i4 I2 |% ]; N% u
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
, P3 S3 e0 ]; W! C T! K* II/S items * 100 = %
$ a$ A- Y: `% r% `2 ^0 o8 @1 h( D Sales
; ?* q# C+ F/ A% w! N• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
$ U2 e0 s: [7 o* i! v– Return on Investment/Equity# _* q, P3 I2 w) V, v
Profit ATB4D = % 9 B. Z: {* V% U( o ~3 ~3 p
Average Equity, P1 i `; k9 d, H) R4 H: B
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2], E' B9 Y) h. K: }! u
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners. ~6 @% C$ `- r2 P7 d
1 R- i% a5 w! i9 o% ?: B1 o• Stability;
4 L1 q# S! i+ b7 f1 _5 z, e– Net Worth: Total Assets
5 e1 B0 }, s1 e% X* ~Total Equity = % 6 v( {0 r. U8 m2 }
Total Assets6 K" W! K' ~; N
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money! r! u$ W* }& ~4 P" c( {) R* R+ X
– Debt to Assets; d8 \ y/ W! n: F- T' Z
Total Debt = % / ~) t; a& [1 k
Total Assets
1 a# g5 A" s- e l0 ?" p• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt' ~( s5 }9 j/ ^5 u- w2 @. S3 {' F
– Interest Coverage% t' g) F9 h' W6 p3 ^. Y
EBIT = # times3 s9 p4 [/ |8 I4 N0 X3 [. {! e u; o3 W
Interest Expense
+ |- _. I {3 j0 s6 U& v$ m• tells us how many times we can pay interest" ]) n/ K& [; R) Y) B
' w" P' d4 D8 i3 ^( x8 {3 w0 E
• Liquidity;( S1 t0 u6 U% D
– Current Ratio
7 z/ U* x* @! h! q5 BCurrent Assets = X:1: W; S- l" l8 I4 x
Current Liabilities4 a0 E. \( N+ P! v& E1 [+ S
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
8 D6 ?( m9 `' \' X9 X: x+ t' V& _( tRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
, ?0 k. S; k% {, Z) f– Acid Test! Q {& f' b1 E4 |& z* p; |
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1 A8 C6 R' W4 O5 J; w! \8 s
Current Liabilities# G. v4 A: _$ L3 |6 ~! w
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
3 V0 ?- i3 c5 G( H, G3 URULE OF THUMB: 1:1
1 d: }: d$ K+ d6 C# ~4 C4 D% y
) V- d5 ^: _7 k5 l4 b2 Q, Y– Working Capital' n7 I) N. ^3 B; {# }" m: B p
C.A - C.L = $X |' C- t0 Z# i9 w
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid, o1 ^$ V+ M% e& l+ Q
. }8 ?& p$ A' B9 {, C! W
Efficiency;
' _- D9 i E2 k) m/ M5 f– Age of Receivables9 ]5 v# X' g2 G! O
Accounts Receivabl = # Days% Z5 Q$ m, v8 f& B6 _
(Sales / 365)
* f) u0 C% k, V5 W; ?5 i/ s• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$& R$ ^- j7 j7 Y$ X
* k5 }: ]6 |/ ]! s& h- G– Age Of Payables3 l' M5 H& z% b8 g- `
Accounts Payable = # Days# T7 j/ u; ` L N8 b& n; l4 @: A8 o
(Purchases* / 365)# u3 ]4 c- X( c( H
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
% _1 Q. A" F k3 t5 u' O, N
2 s. d, E7 C3 N7 R– Age of Inventory' i& M. a6 C9 z( N: n$ ^% ?+ N+ [
Inventory = # Days7 g" k/ `" _/ l7 |
(COGS / 365)1 i$ V, b# V- T% a3 g
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
8 r- n" V1 Q0 V; ~: B4 @, {- Y
7 _8 i; x1 j; x, e# Q7 f2 A& l, S, ^• Growth;
c9 M# A' G+ Z/ N– Sales7 F8 B' Z( R1 Y/ T/ ?
– Net Income: D% u$ v+ D& J4 @
– Total Assets$ }: S/ e/ ]& }' f! A! ^
– Equity3 k2 m2 M% j" k& W& b6 K* t
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %
8 P( {% b2 E/ U: N! h d. U Yr. 1
; T- V! H# w# H, L• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
, ]' h( |2 u i4 R" s2 s. {& G1 i4 O
$ k4 @, H5 v% k) [; G6 XUnderstanding Ratios
1 N- Y1 e$ ~9 u/ @• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
3 ~" ] f3 K6 x• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio
3 j" y- n0 x) B! \# t8 M• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”3 K. n7 B3 W$ v9 l8 |" w* \6 n
– Which number caused the change?9 O& t1 y9 [# [
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.: D1 B- ~ y, H2 a" Y7 `
– Will these trends continue?1 U$ v5 o6 J) N$ H7 s6 v6 d
– How does the company compare to the industry?/ y0 U; c& F* p* |) [5 q
/ a, p4 K" F4 {4 a5 T7 R% g5 K: p: N% g J1 j7 a
Classifying Costs
" I4 f2 M$ m2 E7 j. }4 g• Variable Costs
4 q# P) ]: q K/ Z6 J* k% r– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)% f- H9 \6 Y- E
• Fixed Costs9 Z4 |: Q' h( B
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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